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by Fred
Renzey
Strategic
blackjack mistakes come in many forms. A few examples are doubling
down for less, sizing your next bet according to the last outcome,
and taking insurance based upon the quality of your own hand. But
by and large, most blackjack errors come in the form of misplaying
your hand outright. And there's one hand that get misplayed more
often than any other. Can you name it?
Could it
be when you have 12? Nope. It’s true, most players don’t hit
12 against a 3 and they should. But that’s where their
self-inflicted damage usually ends. Then how about something like
a pair of 9s? Nahh. Most folks correctly split those against any
small card, though many neglect to do it against an 8 or 9 up.
There’s still one more hand that really gets butchered regularly
and that’s a soft 18.
What’s
that you say? You play all your soft 18s perfectly? Well then, go
ahead and play out the hands listed below:
Ace/7
against a 3
Ace/3/2/Ace/Ace against a 9
Ace/7 against a deuce
Ace/3/2/2 against a 10
Ace/7 against a 6
Ace/7 against an Ace
The
correct answers are: double, hit, stand, hit, double, and hit.
Here’s
one more move that most players blow; let’s say you have:
7/7 against
a 4
and you
correctly split. After taking one card on each split you have:
7/10 and
7/Ace
What
should you do with your 7/Ace? Double down.
So tell
me, were you perfect? Not if you’re among the players I see in
the casinos day after day. It’s true, if you know this is a test
you’ll think and answer a bit more judiciously. But when these
hands pop up in the middle of a game and your money’s at stake,
a whole different rationale tends to take over--a self-defeating
rationale. Let’s explain the reasons for the correct plays, so
that you’ll never misplay a soft 18 again.
Against
a 3 up:
If you stand with 18 against a 3, you’re a 58% shot to win, and
that’s a money maker, no doubt. But if you double down, even
though you’ll wreck some of your hands by catching a 4 through
8, you'll still remain a 55% shot--and for twice the money! Thus,
if you don’t double you’re giving away an edge.
Against
a 9 up:
Some of the more "savvy" players will in fact hit a
two-card soft 18 against a 9. But when they start out with
something like Ace/3, take several hits, and finally reach 18,
they lose stamina and quit. This is a mistake. An 18 will beat a
dealer’s 9 only eight times out of 20. But if your 18 is a soft
one and you hit until you make either a soft 19, a hard 17 or
bust, you’ll win 9 out of 20. So, take either 8 wins or 9 wins;
what’s your choice?
Against
a deuce:
Even though soft doubling against a small card is usually a good
move, it’s just too dangerous against a deuce. You’re a 56%
shot the way you are, but if you double and catch a bad card, the
dealer will only break 35% of the time. Just stay pat with this
one.
Against
a 10:
In case you don’t know it, 18 against a 10 is a 7-5 underdog
regardless of how many cards it contains. If your 18 is soft, play
it the same way as you would against a 9 up.
Against
a 6:
It’s ironic that most players have a penchant for doubling down
with Ace/2 or Ace/3 rather than with Ace/7. Yet Ace/7 is by far
your most profitable soft doubling hand. With Ace/2 you can catch
eight bad cards when you double, but with Ace/7 there are only
five. Always put the extra money out there when you have an Ace/7
against a 3, 4, 5, or 6.
Against
an Ace:
It’s the same story as when you're up against a 9 or 10.
You’re a solid underdog, but will pick up an extra win here and
there if you hit it.
After
splitting:
Nothing has changed. It doesn’t matter that you’ve already
invested some extra money in this hand by splitting. You’ve
still got an edge to take advantage of. Don’t let it slip by!
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